Ozzie Jurock says: "We'll be fine in 2009"

Ozzie Jurock, British Columbia's best known real estate consultant and investor, has seen housing and financial crashes before and he is confident B.C. will ride out the current downturn with ease.

In 1992, Jurock notes, some 787 U.S. banks had collapsed amidst the savings and loan crisis.  At that time, Jurock was buying real estate and urging his clients to do the same.

"It was an easy call to make," Jurock said.  "Just as easy a call to make for real estate values now, because the fact is that values grow where people want to go ... and people want to live and play here in Western Canada."

"In today's gloomy environment we must remember that urban real estate always has a use and thus always has a strong asset value.

"We like all urban real estate in Western Canada from Edmonton to Vancouver and most everything in between.  No matter the short-term gyrations, urban properties have been a spectacular investment.  Downtown used condos on Howe Street rose from $95,000 in 2001 to $350,000 in 2008.  The average house price climbed from $16,000 to $700,000 in Vancouver over the last 40 years.

"But we did not get there in a straight line," he said.

In Western Canada for 2009, Jurock said he is only concerned about Saskatchewan, "where volumes are slowing, inventory is soaring, and prices are bound to reverse sharply."

"On average for 2009 we look for prices to firm in Edmonton and go down in Calgary by a a further eight per cent, and Vancouver by 10 per cent."

He cautions that overbuilt condo areas - he singled out downtown Calgary and Vancouver and the Okanagan - will see sharper price decline.

"Recreational areas will not escape as they always follow - down or up - markets in the major cities.  Previous downturns have lasted from one to three years and seen an average of some 17 per cent decline from top to bottom.  I would not be surprised to see that this time also."

However, Jurock recommends buying waterfront.  He notes that there are now 67 waterfront homes for sale on the Sunshine Coast, up tenfold from a year ago.

From an investor's perspective, Jurock said, "we like cash-flowing properties anywhere there is a good employment base, low vacancies, capital investment and a good price-to-rent ratio."

His picks for such markets include Edmonton, the Kootenays and a number of smaller centres in both Alberta and B.C.

"From a home purchase perspective there will be some great deals in new construction [in 2009]," he added.

Jurock believes that we are in the midst of the most unreported inflation of all times, "because we print more money than ever.  All that extra cash created out of thin air will continue to compete with the money you and I make and drive hard asset prices, like real estate, eventually higher again."

"Don't worry," Jurock said.  "The best deals come in down markets.  On the way up, risk increases every day.  On the way down, it decreases every day."

His final advice: work with a sharp Realtor, do your research and make an offer.